Primeira Liga
April 26, 2026
Alverca
16:00
VS
Arouca
Predicted score
1-0
35% confidence
View full match details
Sunday, April 26 2026
AI Match Predictions
Prediction Reliability
35%
Team Context
Alverca
Rank#10
Played25
Points28
PPG1.12
Goal Diff-15
D
D
D
D
L
Arouca
11#Rank
25Played
26Points
1.04PPG
-21Goal Diff
L
L
W
L
W
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.7%
7.89
1-1
11.5%
8.69
2-0
10.6%
9.43
2-1
9.6%
10.37
Both Teams To Score
YES
48% · 2.06
NO
52% · 1.94
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Alverca
37% · 2.69
Draw
33% · 3.07
Arouca
30% · 3.31
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5
2.5 Goals
Under 2.5
48%
52%
Over 48% · 2.1
Under 52% · 1.91
Over 1.5
1.5 Goals
Under 1.5
73%
27%
Over 73% · 1.37
Under 27% · 3.69
Over 3.5
3.5 Goals
Under 3.5
26%
74%
Over 26% · 3.86
Under 74% · 1.35
ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.
Recent Form
Alverca
D
D
D
D
L
Arouca
L
L
W
L
W
Key Stats Comparison
Alverca
Stat
Arouca
1.67
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.91
#10
League Pos.
#11
28 pts
Points
26 pts
1.12
Points / Game
1.04
-15
Goal Diff.
-21
Head to Head
Full H2H record0 W
0 D
1 W
Alverca
Draw
Arouca
1
total goals
1
meetings
Last 1 Meetings
League Context
Full standings| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto
|
28 | 23 | 4 | 1 | +43 | 73 |
| 2 |
Sporting CP
|
27 | 21 | 5 | 1 | +55 | 68 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | +41 | 65 |
| 4 |
SC Braga
|
27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | +27 | 49 |
| 5 |
Famalicao
|
28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | +11 | 46 |
| 6 |
GIL Vicente
|
28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | +14 | 45 |
| 7 |
Estoril
|
27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | +4 | 37 |
| 8 |
Guimaraes
|
28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 |
Moreirense
|
28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 35 |
| 10 |
Alverca
H
|
28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -17 | 32 |
| 11 |
Rio Ave
|
28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -19 | 30 |
| 12 |
Arouca
A
|
27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 |
Santa Clara
|
28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -9 | 28 |
| 14 |
Estrela
|
28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -14 | 28 |
| 15 |
Nacional
|
28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 25 |
| 16 |
Casa Pia
|
26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -22 | 24 |
| 17 |
Tondela
|
27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -25 | 20 |
| 18 |
AVS
|
28 | 1 | 8 | 19 | -43 | 11 |
Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.