Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 March 15, 2026
Aretxabaleta

Aretxabaleta

12
FT
Derio

Derio

We predicted

Aretxabaleta 4+ 35% confidence
View full match details Sunday, March 15 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted Aretxabaleta 4+
|
Actual 1–2

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

low confidence
Prediction Reliability 35%
Team Context
Aretxabaleta
Rank#8
Played25
Points35
PPG1.4
Goal Diff0
L W L W L
Derio
7#Rank
25Played
40Points
1.6PPG
9Goal Diff
W D W W L
Most Likely Scores
Aretxabaleta 4+
12.3%
1-1
9.9%
10.07
2-1
9.6%
10.44
1-0
7.6%
13.25
Both Teams To Score
YES 63% · 1.6
NO 37% · 2.67
Likely: Both teams score
Match Result
Aretxabaleta 35% · 2.86
Draw 31% · 3.19
Derio 34% · 2.97
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
63%
37%
Over 63% · 1.59 Under 37% · 2.69
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
83%
17%
Over 83% · 1.2 Under 17% · 6.02
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
41%
59%
Over 41% · 2.47 Under 59% · 1.68

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Aretxabaleta Aretxabaleta
L W L W L
Derio Derio
W D W W L

Key Stats Comparison

Aretxabaleta
Stat
Derio
1.93
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.32
#8
League Pos.
#7
35 pts
Points
40 pts
1.4
Points / Game
1.6
+0
Goal Diff.
+9

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Portugalete Portugalete
29 22 5 2 +42 71
2
Leioa Leioa
29 16 5 8 +14 53
3
Touring Touring
29 15 8 6 +13 53
4
Lagun Onak Lagun Onak
29 16 4 9 +20 52
5
San Ignacio San Ignacio
29 14 7 9 +10 48
6
Derio Derio A
29 14 5 10 +11 47
7
Aurrerá Vitoria Aurrerá Vitoria
29 14 5 10 +3 47
8
Deportivo Alavés III Deportivo Alavés III
29 12 8 9 +13 44
9
Real Sociedad III Real Sociedad III
29 12 4 13 -4 40
10
Aretxabaleta Aretxabaleta H
29 11 6 12 -3 39
11
Durango Durango
29 9 10 11 -1 37
12
Santurtzi Santurtzi
29 7 11 11 -9 32
13
Pasaia KE Pasaia KE
29 8 8 13 -10 32
14
Añorga Añorga
29 9 3 17 -22 30
15
Zamudio Zamudio
29 8 5 16 -18 29
16
Eibar III Eibar III
29 7 7 15 -15 28
17
Zarautz Zarautz
29 7 5 17 -26 26
18
Deusto Deusto
29 5 6 18 -18 21

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record