Primeira Liga Primeira Liga March 14, 2026
Arouca

Arouca

12
FT
Benfica

Benfica

We predicted

Benfica 4+ 43% confidence
View full match details Saturday, March 14 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted Benfica 4+
|
Actual 1–2

We predicted the correct result direction (away), though fewer than 4 goals were scored.

AI Match Predictions

low confidence
Prediction Reliability 43%
Team Context
Arouca
Rank#11
Played25
Points26
PPG1.04
Goal Diff-21
L L W L W
Benfica
3#Rank
25Played
59Points
2.36PPG
37Goal Diff
D W W W W
Most Likely Scores
Benfica 4+
16.9%
0-2
13.7%
7.32
0-1
12.6%
7.96
0-3
9.9%
10.1
Both Teams To Score
YES 44% · 2.28
NO 56% · 1.78
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Arouca 10% · 9.78
Draw 29% · 3.46
Benfica 61% · 1.64
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
54%
46%
Over 54% · 1.85 Under 46% · 2.18
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
78%
22%
Over 78% · 1.29 Under 22% · 4.49
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
32%
68%
Over 32% · 3.16 Under 68% · 1.46

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Arouca Arouca
L L W L W
Benfica Benfica
D W W W W

Key Stats Comparison

Arouca
Stat
Benfica
0.68
Exp. Goals (xG)
2.18
#11
League Pos.
#3
26 pts
Points
59 pts
1.04
Points / Game
2.36
-21
Goal Diff.
+37

Head to Head

Full H2H record
0 W
1 D
4 W
Arouca
Draw
Benfica
19 total goals
5 meetings

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto
28 23 4 1 +43 73
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
27 21 5 1 +55 68
3
Benfica Benfica A
27 19 8 0 +41 65
4
SC Braga SC Braga
27 14 7 6 +27 49
5
Famalicao Famalicao
28 13 7 8 +11 46
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
28 12 9 7 +14 45
7
Estoril Estoril
27 10 7 10 +4 37
8
Guimaraes Guimaraes
28 10 5 13 -8 35
9
Moreirense Moreirense
28 10 5 13 -9 35
10
Alverca Alverca
28 8 8 12 -17 32
11
Rio Ave Rio Ave
28 7 9 12 -19 30
12
Arouca Arouca H
27 8 5 14 -21 29
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
28 7 7 14 -9 28
14
Estrela Estrela
28 6 10 12 -14 28
15
Nacional Nacional
28 6 7 15 -8 25
16
Casa Pia Casa Pia
26 5 9 12 -22 24
17
Tondela Tondela
27 4 8 15 -25 20
18
AVS AVS
28 1 8 19 -43 11

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record