Primeira Liga
April 19, 2026
Arouca
14:30
VS
Estrela
Predicted score
1-1
34% confidence
View full match details
Sunday, April 19 2026
AI Match Predictions
Prediction Reliability
34%
Team Context
Arouca
Rank#11
Played25
Points26
PPG1.04
Goal Diff-21
L
L
W
L
W
Estrela
12#Rank
25Played
25Points
1.0PPG
-15Goal Diff
D
D
L
L
W
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.3%
8.82
1-0
10.9%
9.19
2-1
9.8%
10.25
2-0
9.4%
10.67
Both Teams To Score
YES
53% · 1.88
NO
47% · 2.13
Likely: Both teams score
Match Result
Arouca
46% · 2.18
Draw
28% · 3.53
Estrela
26% · 3.89
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5
2.5 Goals
Under 2.5
52%
48%
Over 52% · 1.92
Under 48% · 2.09
Over 1.5
1.5 Goals
Under 1.5
76%
24%
Over 76% · 1.31
Under 24% · 4.2
Over 3.5
3.5 Goals
Under 3.5
30%
70%
Over 30% · 3.35
Under 70% · 1.43
ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.
Recent Form
Arouca
L
L
W
L
W
Estrela
D
D
L
L
W
Key Stats Comparison
Arouca
Stat
Estrela
1.72
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.04
#11
League Pos.
#12
26 pts
Points
25 pts
1.04
Points / Game
1.0
-21
Goal Diff.
-15
Head to Head
Full H2H record2 W
1 D
2 W
Arouca
Draw
Estrela
13
total goals
5
meetings
Last 3 Meetings
League Context
Full standings| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto
|
28 | 23 | 4 | 1 | +43 | 73 |
| 2 |
Sporting CP
|
27 | 21 | 5 | 1 | +55 | 68 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | +41 | 65 |
| 4 |
SC Braga
|
27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | +27 | 49 |
| 5 |
Famalicao
|
28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | +11 | 46 |
| 6 |
GIL Vicente
|
28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | +14 | 45 |
| 7 |
Estoril
|
27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | +4 | 37 |
| 8 |
Guimaraes
|
28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 |
Moreirense
|
28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 35 |
| 10 |
Alverca
|
28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -17 | 32 |
| 11 |
Rio Ave
|
28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -19 | 30 |
| 12 |
Arouca
H
|
27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 |
Santa Clara
|
28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -9 | 28 |
| 14 |
Estrela
A
|
28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -14 | 28 |
| 15 |
Nacional
|
28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 25 |
| 16 |
Casa Pia
|
26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -22 | 24 |
| 17 |
Tondela
|
27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -25 | 20 |
| 18 |
AVS
|
28 | 1 | 8 | 19 | -43 | 11 |
Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.