Primeira Liga
May 17, 2026
Arouca
16:00
VS
Tondela
Predicted score
1-0
35% confidence
View full match details
Sunday, May 17 2026
AI Match Predictions
Prediction Reliability
35%
Team Context
Arouca
Rank#11
Played25
Points26
PPG1.04
Goal Diff-21
L
L
W
L
W
Tondela
17#Rank
25Played
19Points
0.76PPG
-20Goal Diff
L
D
W
D
D
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.8%
7.82
1-1
12.7%
7.86
0-0
9.2%
10.93
0-1
9.1%
10.99
Both Teams To Score
YES
47% · 2.11
NO
53% · 1.9
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Arouca
32% · 3.15
Draw
34% · 2.92
Tondela
34% · 2.93
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5
2.5 Goals
Under 2.5
43%
57%
Over 43% · 2.34
Under 57% · 1.75
Over 1.5
1.5 Goals
Under 1.5
69%
31%
Over 69% · 1.45
Under 31% · 3.22
Over 3.5
3.5 Goals
Under 3.5
22%
78%
Over 22% · 4.57
Under 78% · 1.28
ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.
Recent Form
Arouca
L
L
W
L
W
Tondela
L
D
W
D
D
Key Stats Comparison
Arouca
Stat
Tondela
1.4
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.99
#11
League Pos.
#17
26 pts
Points
19 pts
1.04
Points / Game
0.76
-21
Goal Diff.
-20
Head to Head
Full H2H record2 W
1 D
2 W
Arouca
Draw
Tondela
16
total goals
5
meetings
Last 3 Meetings
League Context
Full standings| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto
|
28 | 23 | 4 | 1 | +43 | 73 |
| 2 |
Sporting CP
|
27 | 21 | 5 | 1 | +55 | 68 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | +41 | 65 |
| 4 |
SC Braga
|
27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | +27 | 49 |
| 5 |
Famalicao
|
28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | +11 | 46 |
| 6 |
GIL Vicente
|
28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | +14 | 45 |
| 7 |
Estoril
|
27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | +4 | 37 |
| 8 |
Guimaraes
|
28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 |
Moreirense
|
28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 35 |
| 10 |
Alverca
|
28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -17 | 32 |
| 11 |
Rio Ave
|
28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -19 | 30 |
| 12 |
Arouca
H
|
27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 |
Santa Clara
|
28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -9 | 28 |
| 14 |
Estrela
|
28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -14 | 28 |
| 15 |
Nacional
|
28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 25 |
| 16 |
Casa Pia
|
26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -22 | 24 |
| 17 |
Tondela
A
|
27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -25 | 20 |
| 18 |
AVS
|
28 | 1 | 8 | 19 | -43 | 11 |
Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.