Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 March 21, 2026
Aurrerá Vitoria

Aurrerá Vitoria

01
FT
Leioa

Leioa

We predicted

1-1 36% confidence
View full match details Saturday, March 21 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-1
|
Actual 0–1

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

low confidence
Prediction Reliability 36%
Team Context
Aurrerá Vitoria
Rank#5
Played26
Points46
PPG1.77
Goal Diff6
W W W W L
Leioa
2#Rank
26Played
49Points
1.88PPG
14Goal Diff
W D W W L
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.0%
8.35
1-0
11.9%
8.41
2-1
9.5%
10.55
2-0
9.4%
10.62
Both Teams To Score
YES 50% · 1.98
NO 50% · 2.02
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Aurrerá Vitoria 34% · 2.9
Draw 33% · 3.02
Leioa 32% · 3.08
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
48%
52%
Over 48% · 2.09 Under 52% · 1.92
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
73%
27%
Over 73% · 1.37 Under 27% · 3.71
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
26%
74%
Over 26% · 3.83 Under 74% · 1.35

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Aurrerá Vitoria Aurrerá Vitoria
W W W W L
Leioa Leioa
W D W W L

Key Stats Comparison

Aurrerá Vitoria
Stat
Leioa
1.58
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.01
#5
League Pos.
#2
46 pts
Points
49 pts
1.77
Points / Game
1.88
+6
Goal Diff.
+14

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Portugalete Portugalete
29 22 5 2 +42 71
2
Leioa Leioa A
29 16 5 8 +14 53
3
Touring Touring
29 15 8 6 +13 53
4
Lagun Onak Lagun Onak
29 16 4 9 +20 52
5
San Ignacio San Ignacio
29 14 7 9 +10 48
6
Derio Derio
29 14 5 10 +11 47
7
Aurrerá Vitoria Aurrerá Vitoria H
29 14 5 10 +3 47
8
Deportivo Alavés III Deportivo Alavés III
29 12 8 9 +13 44
9
Real Sociedad III Real Sociedad III
29 12 4 13 -4 40
10
Aretxabaleta Aretxabaleta
29 11 6 12 -3 39
11
Durango Durango
29 9 10 11 -1 37
12
Santurtzi Santurtzi
29 7 11 11 -9 32
13
Pasaia KE Pasaia KE
29 8 8 13 -10 32
14
Añorga Añorga
29 9 3 17 -22 30
15
Zamudio Zamudio
29 8 5 16 -18 29
16
Eibar III Eibar III
29 7 7 15 -15 28
17
Zarautz Zarautz
29 7 5 17 -26 26
18
Deusto Deusto
29 5 6 18 -18 21

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record