Championship
March 21, 2026
Derby
1–0
FT
Birmingham
We predicted
1-0
38% confidence
View full match details
Saturday, March 21 2026
Correct prediction!
Predicted
1-0
|
Actual
1–0
Our model correctly predicted the final scoreline.
AI Match Predictions
Prediction Reliability
38%
Team Context
Derby
Rank#7
Played36
Points54
PPG1.5
Goal Diff7
W
W
L
L
W
Birmingham
12#Rank
36Played
49Points
1.36PPG
-1Goal Diff
L
L
L
W
D
Most Likely Scores
1-0
14.4%
6.93
1-1
12.5%
7.99
2-0
10.2%
9.78
0-0
10.2%
9.82
Both Teams To Score
YES
44% · 2.28
NO
56% · 1.78
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Derby
48% · 2.09
Draw
34% · 2.92
Birmingham
18% · 5.61
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5
2.5 Goals
Under 2.5
40%
60%
Over 40% · 2.5
Under 60% · 1.67
Over 1.5
1.5 Goals
Under 1.5
67%
33%
Over 67% · 1.5
Under 33% · 2.99
Over 3.5
3.5 Goals
Under 3.5
20%
80%
Over 20% · 5.07
Under 80% · 1.25
ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.
Recent Form
Derby
W
W
L
L
W
Birmingham
L
L
L
W
D
Key Stats Comparison
Derby
Stat
Birmingham
1.42
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.87
#7
League Pos.
#12
54 pts
Points
49 pts
1.5
Points / Game
1.36
+7
Goal Diff.
-1
Head to Head
Full H2H record1 W
2 D
2 W
Derby
Draw
Birmingham
12
total goals
5
meetings
Last 3 Meetings
League Context
Full standings| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Coventry
|
40 | 25 | 8 | 7 | +42 | 83 |
| 2 |
Millwall
|
40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | +10 | 72 |
| 3 |
Middlesbrough
|
40 | 20 | 11 | 9 | +21 | 71 |
| 4 |
Ipswich
|
38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | +28 | 69 |
| 5 |
Hull City
|
40 | 20 | 7 | 13 | +5 | 67 |
| 6 |
Wrexham
|
40 | 17 | 13 | 10 | +9 | 64 |
| 7 |
Southampton
|
39 | 17 | 12 | 10 | +15 | 63 |
| 8 |
Derby
H
|
40 | 17 | 9 | 14 | +7 | 60 |
| 9 |
Watford
|
40 | 14 | 14 | 12 | +3 | 56 |
| 10 |
QPR
|
40 | 16 | 8 | 16 | -5 | 56 |
| 11 |
Norwich
|
40 | 16 | 7 | 17 | +6 | 55 |
| 12 |
Stoke City
|
40 | 15 | 9 | 16 | +5 | 54 |
| 13 |
Bristol City
|
40 | 15 | 9 | 16 | +0 | 54 |
| 14 |
Birmingham
A
|
40 | 14 | 11 | 15 | -2 | 53 |
| 15 |
Preston
|
40 | 13 | 14 | 13 | -4 | 53 |
| 16 |
Swansea
|
40 | 15 | 8 | 17 | -5 | 53 |
| 17 |
Sheffield Utd
|
40 | 15 | 6 | 19 | +0 | 51 |
| 18 |
Charlton
|
40 | 12 | 12 | 16 | -11 | 48 |
| 19 |
Blackburn
|
40 | 12 | 10 | 18 | -12 | 46 |
| 20 |
West Brom
|
40 | 11 | 11 | 18 | -14 | 44 |
| 21 |
Portsmouth
|
39 | 10 | 11 | 18 | -17 | 41 |
| 22 |
Leicester
|
40 | 11 | 13 | 16 | -9 | 40 |
| 23 |
Oxford United
|
40 | 9 | 13 | 18 | -15 | 40 |
| 24 |
Sheffield Wednesday
|
40 | 1 | 9 | 30 | -57 | -6 |
Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.