Championship
April 18, 2026
Derby
11:30
VS
Oxford United
Predicted score
1-0
42% confidence
View full match details
Saturday, April 18 2026
AI Match Predictions
Prediction Reliability
42%
Team Context
Derby
Rank#7
Played36
Points54
PPG1.5
Goal Diff7
W
W
L
L
W
Oxford United
23#Rank
36Played
35Points
0.97PPG
-14Goal Diff
W
W
L
D
L
Most Likely Scores
1-0
15.6%
6.41
2-0
12.4%
8.06
1-1
11.4%
8.75
0-0
9.8%
10.18
Both Teams To Score
YES
41% · 2.42
NO
59% · 1.7
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Derby
49% · 2.05
Draw
29% · 3.45
Oxford United
22% · 4.49
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5
2.5 Goals
Under 2.5
41%
59%
Over 41% · 2.44
Under 59% · 1.69
Over 1.5
1.5 Goals
Under 1.5
67%
33%
Over 67% · 1.48
Under 33% · 3.07
Over 3.5
3.5 Goals
Under 3.5
20%
80%
Over 20% · 4.9
Under 80% · 1.26
ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.
Recent Form
Derby
W
W
L
L
W
Oxford United
W
W
L
D
L
Key Stats Comparison
Derby
Stat
Oxford United
1.59
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.73
#7
League Pos.
#23
54 pts
Points
35 pts
1.5
Points / Game
0.97
+7
Goal Diff.
-14
Head to Head
Full H2H record1 W
2 D
2 W
Derby
Draw
Oxford United
11
total goals
5
meetings
Last 3 Meetings
League Context
Full standings| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Coventry
|
40 | 25 | 8 | 7 | +42 | 83 |
| 2 |
Millwall
|
40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | +10 | 72 |
| 3 |
Middlesbrough
|
40 | 20 | 11 | 9 | +21 | 71 |
| 4 |
Ipswich
|
38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | +28 | 69 |
| 5 |
Hull City
|
40 | 20 | 7 | 13 | +5 | 67 |
| 6 |
Wrexham
|
40 | 17 | 13 | 10 | +9 | 64 |
| 7 |
Southampton
|
39 | 17 | 12 | 10 | +15 | 63 |
| 8 |
Derby
H
|
40 | 17 | 9 | 14 | +7 | 60 |
| 9 |
Watford
|
40 | 14 | 14 | 12 | +3 | 56 |
| 10 |
QPR
|
40 | 16 | 8 | 16 | -5 | 56 |
| 11 |
Norwich
|
40 | 16 | 7 | 17 | +6 | 55 |
| 12 |
Stoke City
|
40 | 15 | 9 | 16 | +5 | 54 |
| 13 |
Bristol City
|
40 | 15 | 9 | 16 | +0 | 54 |
| 14 |
Birmingham
|
40 | 14 | 11 | 15 | -2 | 53 |
| 15 |
Preston
|
40 | 13 | 14 | 13 | -4 | 53 |
| 16 |
Swansea
|
40 | 15 | 8 | 17 | -5 | 53 |
| 17 |
Sheffield Utd
|
40 | 15 | 6 | 19 | +0 | 51 |
| 18 |
Charlton
|
40 | 12 | 12 | 16 | -11 | 48 |
| 19 |
Blackburn
|
40 | 12 | 10 | 18 | -12 | 46 |
| 20 |
West Brom
|
40 | 11 | 11 | 18 | -14 | 44 |
| 21 |
Portsmouth
|
39 | 10 | 11 | 18 | -17 | 41 |
| 22 |
Leicester
|
40 | 11 | 13 | 16 | -9 | 40 |
| 23 |
Oxford United
A
|
40 | 9 | 13 | 18 | -15 | 40 |
| 24 |
Sheffield Wednesday
|
40 | 1 | 9 | 30 | -57 | -6 |
Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.