Primeira Liga Primeira Liga March 20, 2026
Estrela

Estrela

40
FT
Casa Pia

Casa Pia

We predicted

1-1 34% confidence
View full match details Friday, March 20 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-1
|
Actual 4–0

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

low confidence
Prediction Reliability 34%
Team Context
Estrela
Rank#12
Played25
Points25
PPG1.0
Goal Diff-15
D D L L W
Casa Pia
13#Rank
25Played
24Points
0.96PPG
-18Goal Diff
D D L W D
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.0%
8.35
1-0
11.9%
8.38
2-1
9.5%
10.56
2-0
9.4%
10.59
Both Teams To Score
YES 50% · 1.99
NO 50% · 2.01
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Estrela 48% · 2.07
Draw 33% · 3.02
Casa Pia 18% · 5.42
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
48%
52%
Over 48% · 2.1 Under 52% · 1.91
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
73%
27%
Over 73% · 1.37 Under 27% · 3.69
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
26%
74%
Over 26% · 3.85 Under 74% · 1.35

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Estrela Estrela
D D L L W
Casa Pia Casa Pia
D D L W D

Key Stats Comparison

Estrela
Stat
Casa Pia
1.58
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.0
#12
League Pos.
#13
25 pts
Points
24 pts
1.0
Points / Game
0.96
-15
Goal Diff.
-18

Head to Head

Full H2H record
3 W
0 D
2 W
Estrela
Draw
Casa Pia
18 total goals
5 meetings

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto
28 23 4 1 +43 73
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
27 21 5 1 +55 68
3
Benfica Benfica
27 19 8 0 +41 65
4
SC Braga SC Braga
27 14 7 6 +27 49
5
Famalicao Famalicao
28 13 7 8 +11 46
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
28 12 9 7 +14 45
7
Estoril Estoril
27 10 7 10 +4 37
8
Guimaraes Guimaraes
28 10 5 13 -8 35
9
Moreirense Moreirense
28 10 5 13 -9 35
10
Alverca Alverca
28 8 8 12 -17 32
11
Rio Ave Rio Ave
28 7 9 12 -19 30
12
Arouca Arouca
27 8 5 14 -21 29
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
28 7 7 14 -9 28
14
Estrela Estrela H
28 6 10 12 -14 28
15
Nacional Nacional
28 6 7 15 -8 25
16
Casa Pia Casa Pia A
26 5 9 12 -22 24
17
Tondela Tondela
27 4 8 15 -25 20
18
AVS AVS
28 1 8 19 -43 11

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record