Primeira Liga Primeira Liga February 20, 2026
Estrela

Estrela

02
FT
Tondela

Tondela

We predicted

1-1 25% confidence
View full match details Friday, February 20 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-1
|
Actual 0–2

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

very_low confidence
Prediction Reliability 25%
Team Context
Estrela
Rank#11
Played22
Points23
PPG1.05
Goal Diff-13
L W D L L
Tondela
17#Rank
22Played
15Points
0.68PPG
-21Goal Diff
D D D L L
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.7%
7.89
0-1
12.0%
8.35
1-0
9.0%
11.05
1-2
8.9%
11.25
Both Teams To Score
YES 49% · 2.03
NO 51% · 1.97
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Estrela 28% · 3.51
Draw 27% · 3.73
Tondela 45% · 2.24
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
45%
55%
Over 45% · 2.24 Under 55% · 1.8
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
70%
30%
Over 70% · 1.42 Under 30% · 3.38
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
23%
77%
Over 23% · 4.28 Under 77% · 1.3

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Estrela Estrela
L W D L L
Tondela Tondela
D D D L L

Key Stats Comparison

Estrela
Stat
Tondela
1.06
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.4
#11
League Pos.
#17
23 pts
Points
15 pts
1.05
Points / Game
0.68
-13
Goal Diff.
-21

Head to Head

Full H2H record
0 W
3 D
1 W
Estrela
Draw
Tondela
4 total goals
4 meetings

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto
28 23 4 1 +43 73
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
27 21 5 1 +55 68
3
Benfica Benfica
27 19 8 0 +41 65
4
SC Braga SC Braga
27 14 7 6 +27 49
5
Famalicao Famalicao
28 13 7 8 +11 46
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
28 12 9 7 +14 45
7
Estoril Estoril
27 10 7 10 +4 37
8
Guimaraes Guimaraes
28 10 5 13 -8 35
9
Moreirense Moreirense
28 10 5 13 -9 35
10
Alverca Alverca
28 8 8 12 -17 32
11
Rio Ave Rio Ave
28 7 9 12 -19 30
12
Arouca Arouca
27 8 5 14 -21 29
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
28 7 7 14 -9 28
14
Estrela Estrela H
28 6 10 12 -14 28
15
Nacional Nacional
28 6 7 15 -8 25
16
Casa Pia Casa Pia
26 5 9 12 -22 24
17
Tondela Tondela A
27 4 8 15 -25 20
18
AVS AVS
28 1 8 19 -43 11

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record