Eredivisie Eredivisie February 14, 2026
Excelsior

Excelsior

12
FT
AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar

We predicted

1-1 25% confidence
View full match details Saturday, February 14 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-1
|
Actual 1–2

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

very_low confidence
Prediction Reliability 25%
Team Context
Excelsior
Rank#12
Played22
Points26
PPG1.18
Goal Diff-13
W D D D D
AZ Alkmaar
7#Rank
22Played
33Points
1.5PPG
1Goal Diff
D L W D L
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.7%
9.31
1-2
8.8%
11.36
2-1
8.0%
12.56
AZ Alkmaar 4+
7.9%
Both Teams To Score
YES 62% · 1.61
NO 38% · 2.65
Likely: Both teams score
Match Result
Excelsior 35% · 2.88
Draw 24% · 4.21
AZ Alkmaar 42% · 2.41
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
60%
40%
Over 60% · 1.66 Under 40% · 2.52
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
82%
18%
Over 82% · 1.22 Under 18% · 5.49
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
38%
62%
Over 38% · 2.64 Under 62% · 1.61

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Excelsior Excelsior
W D D D D
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
D L W D L

Key Stats Comparison

Excelsior
Stat
AZ Alkmaar
1.48
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.64
#12
League Pos.
#7
26 pts
Points
33 pts
1.18
Points / Game
1.5
-13
Goal Diff.
+1

Head to Head

Full H2H record
0 W
2 D
3 W
Excelsior
Draw
AZ Alkmaar
19 total goals
5 meetings

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven
29 23 2 4 +42 71
2
Feyenoord Feyenoord
28 16 5 7 +21 53
3
NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen
29 15 8 6 +24 53
4
Twente Twente
29 13 11 5 +18 50
5
Ajax Ajax
29 12 12 5 +17 48
6
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar A
29 13 6 10 +4 45
7
Heerenveen Heerenveen
28 11 8 9 +3 41
8
Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam
28 12 5 11 -12 41
9
Utrecht Utrecht
29 11 8 10 +10 41
10
Groningen Groningen
29 12 5 12 +5 41
11
Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard
29 10 5 14 -11 35
12
PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle
28 8 9 11 -15 33
13
GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagles
28 7 11 10 +0 32
14
FC Volendam FC Volendam
28 7 6 15 -18 27
15
Telstar Telstar
29 6 9 14 -10 27
16
Excelsior Excelsior H
29 7 6 16 -20 27
17
NAC Breda NAC Breda
28 5 8 15 -21 23
18
Heracles Heracles
28 5 4 19 -37 19

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record