Primeira Liga Primeira Liga February 27, 2026
FC Porto

FC Porto

31
FT
Arouca

Arouca

We predicted

1-0 35% confidence
View full match details Friday, February 27 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-0
|
Actual 3–1

We predicted the correct result direction (home win), though the exact score differed.

AI Match Predictions

low confidence
Prediction Reliability 35%
Team Context
FC Porto
Rank#1
Played23
Points62
PPG2.7
Goal Diff37
W W D L W
Arouca
11#Rank
23Played
26Points
1.13PPG
-18Goal Diff
W L W W L
Most Likely Scores
1-0
17.7%
5.64
2-0
13.1%
7.66
0-0
12.0%
8.31
1-1
11.4%
8.75
Both Teams To Score
YES 37% · 2.73
NO 63% · 1.58
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
FC Porto 57% · 1.75
Draw 26% · 3.78
Arouca 16% · 6.15
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
35%
65%
Over 35% · 2.82 Under 65% · 1.55
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
62%
38%
Over 62% · 1.6 Under 38% · 2.67
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
16%
84%
Over 16% · 6.09 Under 84% · 1.2

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

FC Porto FC Porto
W W D L W
Arouca Arouca
W L W W L

Key Stats Comparison

FC Porto
Stat
Arouca
1.47
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.64
#1
League Pos.
#11
62 pts
Points
26 pts
2.7
Points / Game
1.13
+37
Goal Diff.
-18

Head to Head

Full H2H record
4 W
0 D
1 W
FC Porto
Draw
Arouca
19 total goals
5 meetings

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto H
28 23 4 1 +43 73
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
27 21 5 1 +55 68
3
Benfica Benfica
27 19 8 0 +41 65
4
SC Braga SC Braga
27 14 7 6 +27 49
5
Famalicao Famalicao
28 13 7 8 +11 46
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
28 12 9 7 +14 45
7
Estoril Estoril
27 10 7 10 +4 37
8
Guimaraes Guimaraes
28 10 5 13 -8 35
9
Moreirense Moreirense
28 10 5 13 -9 35
10
Alverca Alverca
28 8 8 12 -17 32
11
Rio Ave Rio Ave
28 7 9 12 -19 30
12
Arouca Arouca A
27 8 5 14 -21 29
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
28 7 7 14 -9 28
14
Estrela Estrela
28 6 10 12 -14 28
15
Nacional Nacional
28 6 7 15 -8 25
16
Casa Pia Casa Pia
26 5 9 12 -22 24
17
Tondela Tondela
27 4 8 15 -25 20
18
AVS AVS
28 1 8 19 -43 11

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record