Primeira Liga Primeira Liga March 21, 2026
Moreirense

Moreirense

01
FT
Arouca

Arouca

We predicted

1-0 37% confidence
View full match details Saturday, March 21 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-0
|
Actual 0–1

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

low confidence
Prediction Reliability 37%
Team Context
Moreirense
Rank#7
Played25
Points35
PPG1.4
Goal Diff-4
D D L W L
Arouca
11#Rank
25Played
26Points
1.04PPG
-21Goal Diff
L L W L W
Most Likely Scores
1-0
14.3%
6.99
1-1
12.5%
8.03
2-0
10.3%
9.75
0-0
10.0%
10.04
Both Teams To Score
YES 44% · 2.26
NO 56% · 1.8
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Moreirense 48% · 2.08
Draw 34% · 2.93
Arouca 18% · 5.65
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
41%
59%
Over 41% · 2.47 Under 59% · 1.68
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
67%
33%
Over 67% · 1.49 Under 33% · 3.04
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
20%
80%
Over 20% · 4.96 Under 80% · 1.25

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Moreirense Moreirense
D D L W L
Arouca Arouca
L L W L W

Key Stats Comparison

Moreirense
Stat
Arouca
1.44
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.87
#7
League Pos.
#11
35 pts
Points
26 pts
1.4
Points / Game
1.04
-4
Goal Diff.
-21

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto
28 23 4 1 +43 73
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
27 21 5 1 +55 68
3
Benfica Benfica
27 19 8 0 +41 65
4
SC Braga SC Braga
27 14 7 6 +27 49
5
Famalicao Famalicao
28 13 7 8 +11 46
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
28 12 9 7 +14 45
7
Estoril Estoril
27 10 7 10 +4 37
8
Guimaraes Guimaraes
28 10 5 13 -8 35
9
Moreirense Moreirense H
28 10 5 13 -9 35
10
Alverca Alverca
28 8 8 12 -17 32
11
Rio Ave Rio Ave
28 7 9 12 -19 30
12
Arouca Arouca A
27 8 5 14 -21 29
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
28 7 7 14 -9 28
14
Estrela Estrela
28 6 10 12 -14 28
15
Nacional Nacional
28 6 7 15 -8 25
16
Casa Pia Casa Pia
26 5 9 12 -22 24
17
Tondela Tondela
27 4 8 15 -25 20
18
AVS AVS
28 1 8 19 -43 11

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record