Primeira Liga Primeira Liga February 15, 2026
Nacional

Nacional

01
FT
FC Porto

FC Porto

We predicted

1-1 29% confidence
View full match details Sunday, February 15 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-1
|
Actual 0–1

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

very_low confidence
Prediction Reliability 29%
Team Context
Nacional
Rank#14
Played21
Points21
PPG1.0
Goal Diff-3
D L W L D
FC Porto
1#Rank
21Played
56Points
2.67PPG
35Goal Diff
D L W W W
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.0%
9.08
FC Porto 4+
10.3%
0-1
10.2%
9.78
1-2
9.8%
10.17
Both Teams To Score
YES 55% · 1.82
NO 45% · 2.22
Likely: Both teams score
Match Result
Nacional 23% · 4.38
Draw 23% · 4.29
FC Porto 54% · 1.86
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
54%
46%
Over 54% · 1.84 Under 46% · 2.19
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
78%
22%
Over 78% · 1.28 Under 22% · 4.52
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
32%
68%
Over 32% · 3.12 Under 68% · 1.47

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Nacional Nacional
D L W L D
FC Porto FC Porto
D L W W W

Key Stats Comparison

Nacional
Stat
FC Porto
1.08
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.79
#14
League Pos.
#1
21 pts
Points
56 pts
1.0
Points / Game
2.67
-3
Goal Diff.
+35

Head to Head

Full H2H record
1 W
0 D
4 W
Nacional
Draw
FC Porto
12 total goals
5 meetings

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto A
28 23 4 1 +43 73
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
27 21 5 1 +55 68
3
Benfica Benfica
27 19 8 0 +41 65
4
SC Braga SC Braga
27 14 7 6 +27 49
5
Famalicao Famalicao
28 13 7 8 +11 46
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
28 12 9 7 +14 45
7
Estoril Estoril
27 10 7 10 +4 37
8
Guimaraes Guimaraes
28 10 5 13 -8 35
9
Moreirense Moreirense
28 10 5 13 -9 35
10
Alverca Alverca
28 8 8 12 -17 32
11
Rio Ave Rio Ave
28 7 9 12 -19 30
12
Arouca Arouca
27 8 5 14 -21 29
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
28 7 7 14 -9 28
14
Estrela Estrela
28 6 10 12 -14 28
15
Nacional Nacional H
28 6 7 15 -8 25
16
Casa Pia Casa Pia
26 5 9 12 -22 24
17
Tondela Tondela
27 4 8 15 -25 20
18
AVS AVS
28 1 8 19 -43 11

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record