Liga MX Liga MX February 28, 2026
Toluca

Toluca

20
FT
Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas

We predicted

1-0 27% confidence
View full match details Saturday, February 28 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-0
|
Actual 2–0

We predicted the correct result direction (home win), though the exact score differed.

AI Match Predictions

very_low confidence
Prediction Reliability 27%
Team Context
Toluca
Rank#4
Played7
Points15
PPG2.14
Goal Diff7
W W D D D
Guadalajara Chivas
1#Rank
7Played
18Points
2.57PPG
6Goal Diff
L W W W W
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.8%
7.84
1-1
11.7%
8.58
2-0
10.5%
9.54
2-1
9.6%
10.44
Both Teams To Score
YES 48% · 2.07
NO 52% · 1.93
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Toluca 54% · 1.84
Draw 25% · 4.06
Guadalajara Chivas 21% · 4.77
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
47%
53%
Over 47% · 2.13 Under 53% · 1.89
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
72%
28%
Over 72% · 1.38 Under 28% · 3.62
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
25%
75%
Over 25% · 3.94 Under 75% · 1.34

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Toluca Toluca
W W D D D
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
L W W W W

Key Stats Comparison

Toluca
Stat
Guadalajara Chivas
1.64
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.91
#4
League Pos.
#1
15 pts
Points
18 pts
2.14
Points / Game
2.57
+7
Goal Diff.
+6

Head to Head

Full H2H record
3 W
2 D
0 W
Toluca
Draw
Guadalajara Chivas
8 total goals
5 meetings

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas A
13 10 1 3 +14 31
2
Cruz Azul Cruz Azul
13 8 3 2 +10 27
3
U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas
13 7 6 1 +9 24
4
Toluca Toluca H
13 7 5 1 +11 26
5
Pachuca Pachuca
13 7 4 2 +6 25
6
Club America Club America
13 5 3 5 +2 18
7
Atlas Atlas
13 5 3 5 -4 18
8
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL
13 5 2 6 +3 17
9
Necaxa Necaxa
13 5 1 7 -1 16
10
Leon Leon
13 5 1 7 -9 16
11
Club Tijuana Club Tijuana
13 3 6 4 -1 15
12
FC Juarez FC Juarez
12 4 3 5 -2 15
13
Monterrey Monterrey
13 4 2 7 +2 14
14
Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis
13 4 2 7 -2 14
15
Puebla Puebla
13 3 4 6 -5 13
16
Club Queretaro Club Queretaro
12 2 5 5 -7 11
17
Mazatlán Mazatlán
13 3 2 8 -10 11
18
Santos Laguna Santos Laguna
13 2 3 8 -16 9

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record