Championship
April 6, 2026
Derby
14:00
VS
Stoke City
Predicted score
1-0
41% confidence
View full match details
Monday, April 6 2026
AI Match Predictions
Prediction Reliability
41%
Team Context
Derby
Rank#7
Played36
Points54
PPG1.5
Goal Diff7
W
W
L
L
W
Stoke City
15#Rank
36Played
47Points
1.31PPG
3Goal Diff
L
L
W
D
L
Most Likely Scores
1-0
16.6%
6.01
2-0
12.5%
8.03
1-1
11.7%
8.58
0-0
11.1%
9.0
Both Teams To Score
YES
39% · 2.56
NO
61% · 1.64
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Derby
52% · 1.93
Draw
34% · 2.97
Stoke City
14% · 6.92
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5
2.5 Goals
Under 2.5
38%
62%
Over 38% · 2.66
Under 62% · 1.6
Over 1.5
1.5 Goals
Under 1.5
64%
36%
Over 64% · 1.55
Under 36% · 2.81
Over 3.5
3.5 Goals
Under 3.5
18%
82%
Over 18% · 5.57
Under 82% · 1.22
ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.
Recent Form
Derby
W
W
L
L
W
Stoke City
L
L
W
D
L
Key Stats Comparison
Derby
Stat
Stoke City
1.5
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.7
#7
League Pos.
#15
54 pts
Points
47 pts
1.5
Points / Game
1.31
+7
Goal Diff.
+3
Head to Head
Full H2H record2 W
1 D
2 W
Derby
Draw
Stoke City
13
total goals
5
meetings
Last 3 Meetings
League Context
Full standings| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Coventry
|
40 | 25 | 8 | 7 | +42 | 83 |
| 2 |
Millwall
|
40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | +10 | 72 |
| 3 |
Middlesbrough
|
40 | 20 | 11 | 9 | +21 | 71 |
| 4 |
Ipswich
|
38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | +28 | 69 |
| 5 |
Hull City
|
40 | 20 | 7 | 13 | +5 | 67 |
| 6 |
Wrexham
|
40 | 17 | 13 | 10 | +9 | 64 |
| 7 |
Southampton
|
39 | 17 | 12 | 10 | +15 | 63 |
| 8 |
Derby
H
|
40 | 17 | 9 | 14 | +7 | 60 |
| 9 |
Watford
|
40 | 14 | 14 | 12 | +3 | 56 |
| 10 |
QPR
|
40 | 16 | 8 | 16 | -5 | 56 |
| 11 |
Norwich
|
40 | 16 | 7 | 17 | +6 | 55 |
| 12 |
Stoke City
A
|
40 | 15 | 9 | 16 | +5 | 54 |
| 13 |
Bristol City
|
40 | 15 | 9 | 16 | +0 | 54 |
| 14 |
Birmingham
|
40 | 14 | 11 | 15 | -2 | 53 |
| 15 |
Preston
|
40 | 13 | 14 | 13 | -4 | 53 |
| 16 |
Swansea
|
40 | 15 | 8 | 17 | -5 | 53 |
| 17 |
Sheffield Utd
|
40 | 15 | 6 | 19 | +0 | 51 |
| 18 |
Charlton
|
40 | 12 | 12 | 16 | -11 | 48 |
| 19 |
Blackburn
|
40 | 12 | 10 | 18 | -12 | 46 |
| 20 |
West Brom
|
40 | 11 | 11 | 18 | -14 | 44 |
| 21 |
Portsmouth
|
39 | 10 | 11 | 18 | -17 | 41 |
| 22 |
Leicester
|
40 | 11 | 13 | 16 | -9 | 40 |
| 23 |
Oxford United
|
40 | 9 | 13 | 18 | -15 | 40 |
| 24 |
Sheffield Wednesday
|
40 | 1 | 9 | 30 | -57 | -6 |
Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.