Championship
April 11, 2026
Southampton
14:00
VS
Derby
Predicted score
1-1
36% confidence
View full match details
Saturday, April 11 2026
AI Match Predictions
Prediction Reliability
36%
Team Context
Southampton
Rank#8
Played35
Points53
PPG1.51
Goal Diff11
W
W
D
W
W
Derby
7#Rank
36Played
54Points
1.5PPG
7Goal Diff
W
W
L
L
W
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.2%
8.21
1-0
11.0%
9.09
2-1
9.3%
10.8
2-0
8.4%
11.96
Both Teams To Score
YES
52% · 1.91
NO
48% · 2.1
Likely: Both teams score
Match Result
Southampton
46% · 2.17
Draw
33% · 3.0
Derby
21% · 4.85
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5
2.5 Goals
Under 2.5
49%
51%
Over 49% · 2.05
Under 51% · 1.95
Over 1.5
1.5 Goals
Under 1.5
74%
26%
Over 74% · 1.36
Under 26% · 3.81
Over 3.5
3.5 Goals
Under 3.5
27%
73%
Over 27% · 3.71
Under 73% · 1.37
ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.
Recent Form
Southampton
W
W
D
W
W
Derby
W
W
L
L
W
Key Stats Comparison
Southampton
Stat
Derby
1.52
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.11
#8
League Pos.
#7
53 pts
Points
54 pts
1.51
Points / Game
1.5
+11
Goal Diff.
+7
Head to Head
Full H2H record1 W
3 D
0 W
Southampton
Draw
Derby
12
total goals
4
meetings
Last 3 Meetings
League Context
Full standings| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Coventry
|
40 | 25 | 8 | 7 | +42 | 83 |
| 2 |
Millwall
|
40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | +10 | 72 |
| 3 |
Middlesbrough
|
40 | 20 | 11 | 9 | +21 | 71 |
| 4 |
Ipswich
|
38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | +28 | 69 |
| 5 |
Hull City
|
40 | 20 | 7 | 13 | +5 | 67 |
| 6 |
Wrexham
|
40 | 17 | 13 | 10 | +9 | 64 |
| 7 |
Southampton
H
|
39 | 17 | 12 | 10 | +15 | 63 |
| 8 |
Derby
A
|
40 | 17 | 9 | 14 | +7 | 60 |
| 9 |
Watford
|
40 | 14 | 14 | 12 | +3 | 56 |
| 10 |
QPR
|
40 | 16 | 8 | 16 | -5 | 56 |
| 11 |
Norwich
|
40 | 16 | 7 | 17 | +6 | 55 |
| 12 |
Stoke City
|
40 | 15 | 9 | 16 | +5 | 54 |
| 13 |
Bristol City
|
40 | 15 | 9 | 16 | +0 | 54 |
| 14 |
Birmingham
|
40 | 14 | 11 | 15 | -2 | 53 |
| 15 |
Preston
|
40 | 13 | 14 | 13 | -4 | 53 |
| 16 |
Swansea
|
40 | 15 | 8 | 17 | -5 | 53 |
| 17 |
Sheffield Utd
|
40 | 15 | 6 | 19 | +0 | 51 |
| 18 |
Charlton
|
40 | 12 | 12 | 16 | -11 | 48 |
| 19 |
Blackburn
|
40 | 12 | 10 | 18 | -12 | 46 |
| 20 |
West Brom
|
40 | 11 | 11 | 18 | -14 | 44 |
| 21 |
Portsmouth
|
39 | 10 | 11 | 18 | -17 | 41 |
| 22 |
Leicester
|
40 | 11 | 13 | 16 | -9 | 40 |
| 23 |
Oxford United
|
40 | 9 | 13 | 18 | -15 | 40 |
| 24 |
Sheffield Wednesday
|
40 | 1 | 9 | 30 | -57 | -6 |
Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.